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Our daily market outlook articles help you stay up to date with the latest news and analysis on leading currencies, indices and commodities across European, US and Asian markets. View our European market outlook to get a thorough picture of the continent’s markets, from an in-depth discussion of the latest movements in the British Pound and Euro, to on-point analysis of the DAX 30, FTSE 100 and CAC 40.
With comprehensive coverage of the Dollar, S&P 500 and Dow Jones, our US market outlook will help you discover opportunities across a wide range of markets. While followers of the Yen, as well as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, can take advantage of our Asian market wrap-up, which provides incisive commentary of the Asia-Pacific region. Give your trading an edge with our market outlooks today. EUR/USD, US Dollar Talking Points: - US Dollar weakness carried over into the 2019 open, with soon making a move down to re-test the November swing-low around 95.67. But since then, prices in the Greenback have been ripping-higher, re-scaling above the key Fibonacci level at 96.47 in the process.
The 2019 open brings a plethora of interesting themes across the FX-space, with major questions hanging over the US Dollar,. Around the US Dollar of recent, the lack of direction in has produced a backdrop with. Those themes remain of interest after the 2019 open, with both pairs putting in moves of weakness down to fresh lows. DailyFX Forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the or are available from the. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our.
Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our. US Dollar Starts the Year With a Bounce from the November Low with prices in moving down for a test of the November low.
That level comes in at 95.68 and after being re-tested in low-liquidity conditions yesterday, price action posed a quick bounce that continues into this morning. Prices in the US Dollar are now testing above the Fibonacci level at 96.47 level, which is the 23.6% of the 2011-2017 major move. US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by After a year of 2018 that saw the Greenback recover a portion of its 2017 losses, focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve and whether the bank can continue with their gradual rate hikes into the New Year. This had become a point of contention in Q4, after Jerome Powell said in the opening days of the fresh quarter that the Fed was ‘a long way off’ from the neutral rate. This provided a near-immediate show of pressure in US stocks, and DXY put in a phase of weakness that lasted for about two weeks, until buyers showed up to offer support around the 95.00 handle on the charts. Price action in the continued within the bullish channel until December rolled around; and after grinding below the channel in the first portion of the month, sellers started to make way after the December rate hike. The big question around the Greenback for 2019 is which trend takes over?
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Will the 2017 bearish theme come back as focus moves towards a Europe that just announced the end of bond purchases via QE? Or, will the 2018 theme of general strength continue as the Fed remains one of the only games in town for possible rate hikes out of major Central Banks?, I’m looking for the currency to move-lower during the period. US Dollar Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by EUR/USD Starts the Year with a Resistance Test that shows support just above the 1.1200 handle and resistance in a key zone that runs from 1.1448-1.1500. The 1.1448 level is the 50% marker of the 2017-2018 bullish trend, and the 1.1500 level is a psychological whole number that helped to set the November swing-high.
Collectively, that resistance zone has been in-play for the last few months after first helping to set support in the first-half of October, and soon becoming resistance that remains in-play today. EUR/USD Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by The big question around the single currency is whether a spate of strength can develop as a couple of major issues have been recently encountered in the Euro-Zone.
The debt standoff between Italy and the European Commission that was a source behind much of the currency’s pain in 2018 is over; with the EC accepting Italy’s most recent budget draft. And on the monetary front, the European Central Bank finally announced an end to bond buys as part of their QE program, and the prospect of this event was the prior source of strength as the currency was running-higher in 2017. With Italy and the EC no longer of chief concern, along with the ECB moving away from bond buys as part of their QE – combined with the fact that the Fed is expected to be more dovish after the ramp in volatility in Q4 – and this could produce a backdrop of strength in the Euro as markets move deeper into 2019. EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by Yen-Strength Continues as USD/JPY Drops to 109.00 Going along with that increase in risk aversion in December has been a re-emergence of Yen-strength ahead of last month’s FOMC rate decision; and in short-order the pair dropped through the first two targets, finding a bit of support at the 110.00 level. But even that bounce could not hold, and sellers remained in-control through the final days of 2018 and through the 2019 open.
With the pair now oversold, the big question is whether a retracement develops that could allow for short-side re-entry., running from the Fibonacci level of 109.66 up to the 110.00 psychological level, could be interesting for lower-high resistance. USD/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by AUD/USD Starts 2019 with a Test Below.7000 On the long side of the US Dollar,. This came after a bullish theme had developed in November, largely on the basis of recovery after a brutal nine-month stretch that saw the pair sell-off in a consistent fashion from January into October.
But, sellers started to get shy around the.7000 big figure; and once some USD-weakness showed up in early-November,. That theme of strength lasted into the first few days of December, at which point bears re-gained control and have been pushing-lower ever since. AUD/USD Daily Price Chart: Sellers Re-Grab Control in December Chart prepared by At this point, the big question is whether sellers can continue to push below the.7000 big figure, or whether a retracement is in order before bearish strategies can become attractive again. RSI has already begun to show a case of divergence on the Daily chart, indicating that the move may already be a bit stretched. This opens up the possibility of using prior areas of resistance for bearish continuation strategies.
The area that I was previously following runs from.7125.7149, and this could remain as attractive. But, also of interest would be the shorter-term area around.7075, as this prior area of support helped to hold the highs through last week. AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by To read more: Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Our have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on -pairs such as,. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions.
Our bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at. If you’re looking for educational information, our is there to help new(er) traders while our is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.
Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter. TALKING POINTS – YEN, STOCKS, FRANC, US DOLLAR, EURO, GERMAN CPI., higher as risk appetite sours once again. broadly pressured as 2019 Fed rate hike bets evaporate. may edge lower as CPI drop puts dovish ECB in the spotlight Seesawing sentiment trends continued to define G10 FX price action in Asia Pacific trading hours. A late-day downturn in risk appetite sent Japan’s benchmark stock index lower, boosting the perennially anti-risk Yen. The similarly-minded Swiss Franc also traded higher.
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The US Dollar was the weakest on the session in what appears to reflect deteriorating Fed interest rate hike expectations. The priced-in tightening path for 2019 reflected in Fed Funds futures now implies a mere 12 percent chance of any increase even as the central bank itself calls for a 50bps upshift. MARKET MOOD SWINGS MAY MISLEAD, EURO AT RISK ON GERMAN CPI. Bellwether futures are sending mixed signals about what to expect ahead. Earlier gains have been erased and now the pendulum seems to have swung in favor of risk aversion. Thinning liquidity ahead of the New Year holiday weekend warns against taking any such cues at face value however. Still, the balance of risks menacing investors probably means the path of least resistance leads to the risk-off side of the sentiment spectrum.
A partial US government shutdown persists, the outlook for global growth has darkened, the ceasefire in the US-China trade war looks fragile and Brexit is mired in uncertainty. German CPI data headlines the European data docket. The headline on-year inflation rate is expected to drop to 1.9 percent, the lowest in eight months.
That may see the Euro retrace some of its recent strength as traders are reminded that the ECB is unlikely to be raising interest rates any time soon. See our free guide to learn how to! ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION. All times listed in GMT.
FX TRADING RESOURCES. Just getting started? See our. Having trouble with your strategy?
Here’s the. and have your trading questions answered - Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or on Twitter.
Asia Pacific Market Open – S&P 500, US Dollar, Fed, Asia Stocks, China Manufacturing PMI. declined as the markets priced out even one Fed rate hike in 2019, swung. Low liquidity amidst holiday trade still creates recipe for volatile price action as week begins. Asia stocks may trade mixed unless China Manufacturing PMI contraction triggers a selloff Find out what say about the coming price trend! The US Dollar slid against most of its major counterparts on Friday as. With that said, stocks still ended the day mixed given low liquidity in holiday trade and with New Year’s still yet to come. The S&P 500 ended the day about 0.12% lower after a mixed session.
That marked its only positive week in December given a rocky month for global benchmark stock indexes. With that said, Wall Street was unable to follow-through after broad gains in European shares. Investors remained jittery given a prolonged US government shutdown and recent dismal domestic consumer confidence. To add to that, pending home sales slid 7.7% y/y in November which was the largest contraction since April 2014.
The ended worse, sliding with local government bond yields which reflected fading 2019 BoC rate hike bets. Meanwhile the anti-risk and gained against their major counterparts.
Amidst falling US government bond yields and the decline in the greenback, prices gained as the anti-fiat commodity. Given the incoming New Year’s holiday and the reduction in liquidity, Asia Pacific markets may trade mixed.
As for economic data, we will get December’s Chinese Manufacturing PMI which is on the verge of contraction. Local economic news flow has been tending to underperform, opening the door to an unexpected downside surprise. That may lead to aggressive risk aversion if it fuels more concerns about slowing Chinese economic growth. NZD/USD Technical Analysis The sits right in a horizontal range of support between 0.66898 and 0.67141 which are the lows seen from July 2018. And resumption of risk aversion may lead to close under this area.
That would open the door to perhaps reaching the 2018 low around 0.64247. You may follow me on twitter for updates to my setup.
NZD/USD Daily Chart Chart created in TradingView US Trading Session Asia Pacific Trading Session. All times listed in GMT. See the FX Trading Resources. See how equities are viewed by the trading community at the. Join a free Q&A webinar and. See our free guide to learn what are the. See our to learn how it might influence financial markets!
- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or on Twitter. About your FOREX.com Demo Account A demo account is intended to familiarize you with the tools and features of our trading platforms and to facilitate the testing of trading strategies in a risk-free environment. Results achieved on the demo account are hypothetical and no representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve actual profits or losses similar to those achieved in the demo account. Conditions in the demo account cannot always reasonably reflect all of the market conditions that may affect pricing and execution in a live trading environment.